One year ago, the Fantasy Lab debuted its top 25 fantasy basketball keepers of players 22 years old or younger. The column was a smashing success (I got more emails than ever before) despite a numbering error that actually brought the list to 26 players (surprisingly no emails about this). The people wanted more keeper advice. So the Lab is back with grades on last year’s list and a new top 25 in what promises to be an annual tradition.

But why 22 years old? It’s explained best in the intro in last year’s column, but to summarize: When players used to play four years of college ball, they were 22 when they entered the League; now the rookies are younger and more varied in age and their development on draft day, making it harder to accurately project a player’s career arc using the conventional wisdom of the last century. Over the last 15 years (since KG went from prep to pros), we’ve learned that if a player can establish he’s for real before he hits 22, the odds of becoming a superstar are heavily stacked in his favor.

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Using real players to illustrate the point, Memphis Grizzlies rookie Sam Young is anything but, entering the Association at 24 years old, extremely long in the tooth for a rookie. Comparably, his teammate O.J. Mayo is still only 21 years old, three years his younger. Mayo is already a better player and has three more years to develop both his body and his game, while Young is already close to his physical peak and is years behind the NBA learning curve. The future certainly looks a lot brighter for Mayo, even if Young miraculously matches Mayo’s rookie numbers, no matter how many times the homer announcers are mistakenly impressed by the “young rookie.”

Before getting to this year’s list, let’s grade last year’s rankings and see how well the Lab prognosticated. Keep in mind it can be difficult to judge rookies just two months into the season, but you gotta do what you gotta do to create this list. The four players listed in italics were eligible for this year’s list based on their age, but did not make it.

Last year’s Top 25 Keepers (from January 6, 2009)

1. Kevin Durant, SG/SF, Thunder, 20, A

2. Derrick Rose, PG, Bulls, 20, A

3. Andris Biedrins, C, Warriors, 22, B

4. Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, Pistons, 22, B

5. Andrew Bynum, C, Lakers, 21, B

6. O.J. Mayo, PG/SG, Grizzlies, 21, B

7. Rajon Rondo, PG, Celtics, 22, B

8. Michael Beasley, SF/PF, Heat, 19, A

9. Russell Westbrook, PG, Thunder, 20, A

10. Brook Lopez, F/C, Nets, 20, B

10. Rudy Gay, SF/PF, Grizzlies, 22, B

11. Al Horford, F/C, Hawks, 22, B

12. Tyrus Thomas, SF/PF, Bulls, 22, B

13. Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, Sixers, 20, C

14. Spencer Hawes, F/C, Kings, 20, C

15. Greg Oden, C, Blazers, 20, B

16. Wilson Chandler, SG/SF/PF, Knicks, 21, A

17. Jeff Green, SF/PF, Thunder, 22, A

18. Amir Johnson, SF/PF, Pistons, 21, F

19. Kevin Love, F/C, T-Wolves, 20, B

20. Eric Gordon, SG, Clippers, 20, C

21. Mario Chalmers, PG, Heat, 22, B

22. D.J. Augustin, PG, Bobcats, 21, D

23. Louis Williams, PG/SG, Sixers, 22, C

24. Mike Conley, PG/SG, Grizzlies, 21, D

25. Andray Blatche, PF/C, Wizards, 22, D

Grades:

A: Durant, Rose, Beasley, Westbrook, Chandler, Green

When you put out a list like this, it’s important to nail the No. 1 ranking and Durant is delivering with flying colors. But that should have been a no-brainer for everyone reading the column. Rose still looks like he’s on the path to superstardom. It took courage to rank Beasley, the NBA’s youngest player last year, up at 8, but he’s proving to be right around there with the potential for more in the future. The Westbrook pick was aggressive for what he had done at the time, but it looks dead on, while Chandler and Green are ranked exactly as they should be.

B: Biedrins, Stuckey, Bynum, Mayo, Rondo, Lopez, Gay, Horford, T. Thomas, Oden, Love, Chalmers

There are more Bs than any other grade meaning the Lab did a pretty good job with the rankings but there was still room for improvement. Biedrins and Stuckey were solid picks with nice futures, but they look a little too high now. Bynum could have been an A, but the reality of his situation with Kobe and Pau around for a while dampens the enthusiasm. Rondo should have been higher but No. 7 is still pretty good. Same deal with Lopez at 10, Gay at, um, 10 too (that’s the aforementioned numbering issue), and Horford at 11. Love should have been higher on talent, but injuries are causing problems so the lower ranking is actually appropriate. Thomas should be busting out, but VDN is messing with him and his playing time. The B for Chalmers may seem curious given his demotion to the bench in Miami that’s rendering him unrosterable in standard leagues, but remember how strong his rookie season was and how many people were expecting better things this year. Having him outside the top 20 looks very good in hindsight.

C: Young, Hawes, Gordon, Williams, Oden

The Lab is still excited for Young and Hawes to deliver on their potential, but they haven’t yet met this year’s lofty expectations. It took a while for the Lab to warm up to Gordon (by late last year, there was an occupied seat on his bandwagon), so he should have been much higher. Williams should have been ahead of the two players ranked directly in front of him.

Last year at this time, Oden was making a successful comeback from microfracture knee surgery and looked like he could become an interior force, but then the former No. 1 overall pick got hurt again. Many others would have had him much higher, and they would have been justified with how he played out of the gate, but two years of injuries factored into the rankings. Then he fractured his left patella so an even lower ranking would have made more sense.

D: Augustin, Conley, Blatche

All three players showed promise late last year and excelled when starting in place of an injured player, but for various reasons, it hasn’t worked out for them this year. Blatche is still too immature and the Wizards imported a lot of talent this offseason. Maybe it will be exported again soon. Augustin had the confidence verbally beaten out of him by Larry Brown, but those players typically emerge better off for it down the road. Conley’s had a slow progression stymied by an influx of talented players around him and some injuries. The light switch still hasn’t clicked on. And it might never will.

F: Johnson

I overrated him the way Joe Dumars has overrated so many players through the years. The Lab will not be an Amir apologist again.

Before moving on to this year’s list, it’s worth noting the omission of Anthony Randolph from last year’s list. He’s the only player who wasn’t on the list that really should have been. He didn’t even crack 14 mpg in November or December, and the Lab barely remembers seeing him play, but the per 36 mpg averages should have been a dead giveaway: 15.9 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 1.3 spg and 2.4 bpg. Amends were made for this year’s list.

Also, 10 players “graduated” from last year’s list since they aged from 22 to 23 years old. We lost the likes of Andris Biedrins, Rodney Stuckey, Rajon Rondo, Rudy Gay, Al Horford, Tyrus Thomas, Jeff Green, Mario Chalmers, Lou Williams and Andray Blatche.

Hti the next page for the list and explanations.